Logistic Model - Missile Launch Test Example

This example appears in the Reliability Growth and Repairable System Analysis Reference book.

The next table presents the results for a missile launch test. The test consisted of 20 attempts. If the missile launched, it was recorded as a success. If not, it was recorded as a failure. Note that, at this development stage, the test did not consider whether or not the target was destroyed.


 * 1)	Find a Logistic reliability growth curve that best represents the data.
 * 2)	Plot it comparatively with the raw data.
 * 3)	If design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, when will the reliability goal of 99.5% with a 90% confidence level be achieved?
 * 4)	If design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, what will be the attainable reliability at the end of the 35th launch?

Solution
 * 1)	The next figure shows the entered data and the estimated parameters.


 * 2)	The next figure displays the Reliability vs. Time plot.


 * 3)	The next figure displays when the reliability goal of 99.5% will be achieved with a 90% confidence level.


 * 4)	The next figure displays the reliability achieved after the 35th launch.