Fleet Data Analysis

Predicting the Number of Failures for Fleet Operation
Eleven systems from the field were chosen for the purposes of a fleet analysis. Each system had at least one failure. All of the systems had a start time equal to zero and the last failure for each system corresponds to the end time. Group the data based on a fixed interval of 3000 hours and assume a fixed effectiveness factor equal to 0.4. Do the following: 1)	Estimate the parameters of the Crow Extended model. 2)	Based on the analysis does it appear that the systems were randomly ordered? 3)	After the implementation of the delayed fixes, how many failures would you expect within the next 4000 hours of fleet operation.

Solution to Example 5

 * 1)	Figure Repair1 shows the estimated Crow Extended parameters.
 * 2)	Upon observing the estimated parameter $$\beta $$  it does appear that the systems were randomly ordered since  $$\beta =0.8569$$ . This value is close to 1. You can also verify that the confidence bounds on  $$\beta $$  include 1 by going to the QCP and calculating the parameter bounds or by viewing the Beta Bounds plot. However, you can also determine graphically if the systems were randomly ordered by using the System Operation plot as shown in Figure Repair2. Looking at the Cum. Time Line, it does not appear that the failures have a trend associated with them. Therefore, the systems can be assumed to be randomly ordered.

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