Template:Example: Kaplan-Meier Example

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Kaplan-Meier Example

A group of 20 units are put on a life test with the following results.

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{matrix} Number & State & State \\ in State & (F or S) & End Time \\ 3 & F & 9 \\ 1 & S & 9 \\ 1 & F & 11 \\ 1 & S & 12 \\ 1 & F & 13 \\ 1 & S & 13 \\ 1 & S & 15 \\ 1 & F & 17 \\ 1 & F & 21 \\ 1 & S & 22 \\ 1 & S & 24 \\ 1 & S & 26 \\ 1 & F & 28 \\ 1 & F & 30 \\ 1 & S & 32 \\ 2 & S & 35 \\ 1 & S & 39 \\ 1 & S & 41 \\ \end{matrix} }[/math]

Use the Kaplan-Meier estimator to determine the reliability estimates for each failure time.


Solution

Using the data and the reliability equation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator , the following table can be constructed:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{matrix} State & Number of & Number of & Available & {} & {} \\ End Time & Failures, {{r}_{i}} & Suspensions, {{s}_{i}} & Units, {{n}_{i}} & \tfrac{{{n}_{i}}-{{r}_{i}}}{{{n}_{i}}} & \mathop{}_{}^{}\tfrac{{{n}_{i}}-{{r}_{i}}}{{\prod{n}_{i}}} \\ 9 & 3 & 1 & 20 & 0.850 & 0.850 \\ 11 & 1 & 0 & 16 & 0.938 & 0.797 \\ 12 & 0 & 1 & 15 & 1.000 & 0.797 \\ 13 & 1 & 1 & 14 & 0.929 & 0.740 \\ 15 & 0 & 1 & 12 & 1.000 & 0.740 \\ 17 & 1 & 0 & 11 & 0.909 & 0.673 \\ 21 & 1 & 0 & 10 & 0.900 & 0.605 \\ 22 & 0 & 1 & 9 & 1.000 & 0.605 \\ 24 & 0 & 1 & 8 & 1.000 & 0.605 \\ 26 & 0 & 1 & 7 & 1.000 & 0.605 \\ 28 & 1 & 0 & 6 & 0.833 & 0.505 \\ 30 & 1 & 0 & 5 & 0.800 & 0.404 \\ 32 & 0 & 1 & 4 & 1.000 & 0.404 \\ 35 & 0 & 1 & 3 & 1.000 & 0.404 \\ 39 & 0 & 1 & 2 & 1.000 & 0.404 \\ 41 & 0 & 1 & 1 & 1.000 & 0.404 \\ \end{matrix} }[/math]

As can be determined from the preceding table, the reliability estimates for the failure times are:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{matrix} Failure Time & Reliability Est. \\ 9 & 85.0% \\ 11 & 79.7% \\ 13 & 74.0% \\ 17 & 67.3% \\ 21 & 60.5% \\ 28 & 50.5% \\ 30 & 40.4% \\ \end{matrix} }[/math]