Template:Monitoring warranty returns using statistical process control: Difference between revisions

From ReliaWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
(Redirected page to Warranty Data Analysis)
 
(3 intermediate revisions by one other user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
===Monitoring Warranty Returns Using Statistical Process Control (SPC)===
#REDIRECT [[Warranty Data Analysis]]
By monitoring and analyzing warranty return data, the user now has the ability to detect specific return periods and/or batches of sales or shipments that may deviate (differ) from the assumed model. This provides the analyst (and the organization) the advantage of early notification of possible deviations in manufacturing, use conditions and/or any other factor that may adversely affect the reliability of the fielded product.
 
Obviously, the motivation for performing such analysis is to allow for faster intervention to avoid increased costs due to increased warranty returns or more serious repercussions.  Additionally, this analysis can also be used to uncover different sub-populations that may exist  within this population.
 
 
'''Analysis Method'''
 
For each  sales period  <math>i</math>  and return period  <math>j</math> , the prediction error can be calculated as follows:
 
::<math>{{e}_{i,j}}={{\hat{F}}_{i,j}}-{{F}_{i,j}}</math>
 
where  <math>{{\hat{F}}_{i,j}}</math>  is the estimated number of failures based on the estimated distribution parameters for the sales period  <math>i</math>  and the return period  <math>j</math> , which is calculated using Eqn.(Conditional), and  <math>{{F}_{i,j}}</math>  is the actual number of failure for the sales period  <math>i</math>  and the return period  <math>j</math> .
 
Since we are assuming that the model is accurate,  <math>{{e}_{i,j}}</math>  should follow a normal distribution with mean value of zero and a standard deviation  <math>s</math> , where:
 
::<math>{{\bar{e}}_{i,j}}=\frac{\underset{i}{\mathop{\sum }}\,\underset{j}{\mathop{\sum }}\,{{e}_{i,j}}}{n}=0</math>
 
and  <math>n</math>  is the total number of return data (total number of residuals).
 
The estimated standard deviation of the prediction errors can then be calculated by:
 
::<math>s=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n-1}\underset{i}{\mathop \sum }\,\underset{j}{\mathop \sum }\,e_{i,j}^{2}}</math>
 
and  <math>{{e}_{i,j}}</math>  can be normalized as follows:
 
::<math>{{z}_{i,j}}=\frac{{{e}_{i,j}}}{s}</math>
 
where  <math>{{z}_{i,j}}</math>  is the standardized error.  <math>{{z}_{i,j}}</math>  follows a normal distribution with  <math>\mu =0</math>  and  <math>\sigma =1</math> .
 
It is known that the square of a random variable with standard normal distribution follows the  <math>{{\chi }^{2}}</math>  (Chi Square) distribution with 1 degree of freedom and that the sum of the squares of  <math>m</math>  random variables with standard normal distribution follows the  <math>{{\chi }^{2}}</math>  distribution with  <math>m</math>  degrees of freedom <math>.</math>  This then can be used to help detect the abnormal returns for a given sales period, return period or just a specific cell (combination of a return and a sales period).
 
:• For a cell, abnormality is detected if  <math>z_{i,j}^{2}=\chi _{1}^{2}\ge \chi _{1,\alpha }^{2}.</math>
:• For an entire sales period  <math>i</math> , abnormality is detected if  <math>\underset{j}{\mathop{\sum }}\,z_{i,j}^{2}=\chi _{J}^{2}\ge \chi _{\alpha ,J}^{2},</math>  where  <math>J</math>  is the total number of return period for a sales period  <math>i</math> .
:• For an entire return period  <math>j</math> , abnormality is detected if  <math>\underset{i}{\mathop{\sum }}\,z_{i,j}^{2}=\chi _{I}^{2}\ge \chi _{\alpha ,I}^{2},</math>  where  <math>I</math>  is the total number of sales period for a return period  <math>j</math> .
Here  <math>\alpha </math>  is the criticality value of the  <math>{{\chi }^{2}}</math>  distribution, which can be set at critical value or caution value. It describes the level of sensitivity to outliers (returns that deviate significantly from the predictions based on the fitted model). Increasing the value of  <math>\alpha </math>  increases the power of detection, but this could lead to more false alarms.
 
 
'''Example 5:'''
{{Example: Warranty Analysis Return Montoring Example}}
 
====Example 7====
The SPC (warranty monitoring) methodology explained in this section can also be used to detect different subpopulations. The different subpopulations can reflect different use conditions, different material, etc.  In this methodology, one can use different IDs to differentiate between subpopulations, and obtain models that are distinct to each subpopulation. The following example illustrates this concept.
A manufacturer collected the following sales and return data.
 
 
<center><math>\begin{matrix}
  {} & Oct 05 & Nov 05 & Dec 05 & Jan 06 & Feb 06 & Mar 06 & Apr 06 & May 06  \\
  Sep 05 & \text{2} & \text{4} & \text{5} & \text{7} & \text{12} & \text{13} & \text{16} & \text{17}  \\
  Oct 05 & \text{-} & \text{3} & \text{4} & \text{5} & \text{3} & \text{8} & \text{11} & \text{14}  \\
  Nov 05 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2} & \text{3} & \text{5} & \text{7} & \text{23} & \text{13}  \\
  Dec 05 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2} & \text{3} & \text{4} & \text{6} & \text{7}  \\
  Jan 06 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2} & \text{3} & \text{3} & \text{4}  \\
  Feb 06 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2} & \text{3} & \text{3}  \\
  Mar 06 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2} & \text{12}  \\
  Apr 06 & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{-} & \text{2}  \\
\end{matrix}</math></center>
 
 
The data were analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution and the MLE analysis method. The parameters are estimated to be:
 
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \beta = & 2.31 \\
& \eta = & 25.07 
\end{align}</math>
 
 
The SPC's  <math>\alpha </math>  value are set at 0.01 for the Critical Value and 0.1 for the Caution Value. When analyzed and color coded in Weibull++ the following window is obtained:
 
[[Image:warrantypyramid.png|thumb|center|400px| ]]
 
Here the Nov. 05 and Mar 06 sales periods are colored in yellow indicating that they are `outlier' sales periods, while the rest are green. One suspected reason for the variation may be the material used in production in this period. Further analysis confirmed that for these periods the material was acquired from a different supplier. This then implies that the units are not homogenous, and that there are different subpopulations present in the field populations.
 
Based on this, the data is re-analyzed after categorizing the different shipments (using the ID column) based on their material supplier. The data as entered are shown next.
 
[[Image:supplier1-2.png|thumb|center|400px| ]]  
 
 
The new models that describe the data are (assuming a two-parameter Weibull distribution and using MLE as the analysis method for both sub-populations):
 
 
<center><math>\begin{matrix}
  Supplier 1 & Supplier 2  \\
  \begin{matrix}
  \beta =2.38  \\
  \eta =25.39  \\
\end{matrix} & \begin{matrix}
  \beta =2.32  \\
  \eta =21.28  \\
\end{matrix}  \\
\end{matrix}</math></center>
 
 
This analysis helped in uncovering different subpopulations as well as allowing us to compute different distributions for each subpopulation.  Note that if the analysis were performed on the failure and suspension times in a regular Standard Folio, using the mixed Weibull distribution, one would not be able to detect which units fall into which subpopulation.

Latest revision as of 07:46, 29 June 2012

Redirect to:

Retrieved from "https://www.reliawiki.com/index.php?title=Template:Monitoring_warranty_returns_using_statistical_process_control&oldid=25805"